According to Symantec, email spam has been declining since August. The sharpest drop occurred in late December and early January, during the Christmas and New Year holiday. Did the spammers join the rest of the world in revelries and merriment?
Symantec doesn't have an answer for that question. The company does point to the Rustock botnet, the dominating spam botnet in 2010. Since December 25, Rustock has been eerily quiet. The amount of spam produced by the botnet currently accounts for 0.5% of all spam worldwide. At its peak, it accounted for almost half (approximately forty-eight percent) of global spam. Some of the other major botnets, such as Lethic and Xarvester, have also gone into a seeming hibernation. Two other botnets, Gheg and Cutwail, are producing relatively the same amount of spam that they have been in the past.
At the moment, the levels of spam hitting Symantec's honeypots are the lowest they have been since November 2008 when McColo, a rogue ISP, was shut down. Symantec warns that history will repeat itself. After McColo was nullified, other botnets arrived on the scene.
Even though Rustock, Lethic, and Xarvester are almost silent at the moment, they may make a reprise in the next few months. Even if they don't, they'll be replaced by other, perhaps new, botnets, some of which may be found in different arenas, such as the social media ones. Facebook has seen a plethora of spam and phishing attacks recently, including the dancing snowman and "My 1st St@tus." Twitter, too, has faced attacks, including the recent Gawker incident.
Have the spammers, scammers, and phishers gone on vacation? I'm sure we'd like to think so, but it's unlikely. The more likely scenario is that they're organizing a new campaign. According to the BBC, it isn't unusual for spammers to stop and regroup when their botnets aren't as lucrative as they would like. Does that mean email spam will continue to decline if it isn't making a profit? Maybe, but it will never go away permanently. Why would it when it continues to be such an attractive lure? The best guess is that spammers will continue to target email but will also increase their activity on social media platforms.
